rankOar Women's College Rowing Computer Ranking
Week 2 Computer Ranking
April 9, 2024
Rank | School Name | Points |
1 | University of Texas – Austin | 535 |
2 | University of Michigan | 534 |
3 | Yale University | 528 |
4 | University of Virginia | 516 |
5 | University of California – Berkley | 515 |
6 | Syracuse University | 514 |
7 | University of Pennsylvania | 510 |
8 | Ohio State University | 508 |
9 | Duke University | 492 |
9 | Rutgers University | 492 |
11 | University of Tennessee | 491 |
12 | University of Washington | 490 |
13 | Indiana University | 479 |
14 | Stanford University | 468 |
15 | Harvard-Radcliffe | 466 |
16 | Oregon State University | 440 |
17 | Northeastern University | 438 |
18 | University of Minnesota | 436 |
19 | Columbia University | 431 |
20 | Washington State University | 422 |
21 | University of Miami | 412 |
22 | Gonzaga University | 411 |
23 | University of Alabama | 397 |
24 | University of Iowa | 395 |
25 | University of Notre Dame | 394 |
26 | Clemson University | 385 |
27 | University of Southern California | 384 |
28 | University of California – Los Angeles | 373 |
29 | University of Tulsa | 355 |
30 | University of California – San Diego | 347 |
31 | University of Central Florida | 343 |
32 | Dartmouth College | 337 |
33 | Boston University | 326 |
34 | University of Oklahoma | 318 |
35 | Georgetown University | 317 |
36 | University of Rhode Island | 309 |
36 | University of Wisconsin | 309 |
38 | George Washington University | 305 |
39 | Boston College | 304 |
39 | United States Naval Academy | 304 |
41 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 297 |
41 | Michigan State University | 297 |
43 | University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | 293 |
44 | University of Louisville | 285 |
45 | Drexel University | 276 |
46 | Jacksonville University | 275 |
47 | University of Delaware | 274 |
48 | University of San Diego | 261 |
48 | Kansas State University | 261 |
50 | University of Kansas | 260 |
50 | University of Portland | 260 |
52 | California State University – Sacramento | 258 |
53 | Southern Methodist University | 254 |
54 | Saint Joseph's University | 247 |
55 | Stetson University | 241 |
56 | Temple University | 234 |
57 | University of Dayton | 229 |
58 | Loyola Marymount University | 225 |
59 | Marist College | 220 |
60 | University of Massachusetts – Amherst | 201 |
61 | Seattle University | 191 |
62 | University of Connecticut | 187 |
63 | Cornell University | 184 |
64 | West Virginia University | 183 |
65 | Saint Mary’s College of California | 179 |
66 | Bucknell University | 178 |
67 | Canisius College | 174 |
68 | Creighton University | 172 |
69 | Old Dominion University | 151 |
70 | College of the Holy Cross | 146 |
71 | Villanova University | 142 |
72 | Lehigh University | 140 |
73 | Fairfield University | 123 |
74 | Drake University | 117 |
75 | George Mason University | 115 |
76 | Loyola University Maryland | 95 |
77 | Merrimack College | 60 |
78 | Iona College | 59 |
79 | Santa Clara University | 48 |
*Points are relative, based on NCAA scoring system. | ||
Rank | School Name | Points |
1 | University of Michigan | 10,745 |
2 | University of Texas – Austin | 10,607 |
3 | University of California – Berkley | 9,992 |
4 | Yale University | 9,697 |
5 | University of Virginia | 9,668 |
6 | University of Pennsylvania | 9,667 |
7 | Syracuse University | 9,605 |
8 | University of Tennessee | 9,455 |
9 | Ohio State University | 9,104 |
10 | Rutgers University | 9,048 |
11 | University of Washington | 8,743 |
12 | Stanford University | 8,476 |
13 | Indiana University | 8,242 |
14 | University of Minnesota | 8,118 |
15 | Oregon State University | 8,099 |
16 | Duke University | 8,008 |
17 | Washington State University | 7,985 |
18 | Gonzaga University | 7,871 |
19 | Harvard-Radcliffe | 7,770 |
20 | Northeastern University | 7,669 |
21 | Clemson University | 7,504 |
22 | Columbia University | 7,425 |
23 | University of Miami | 7,345 |
24 | University of California – San Diego | 7,268 |
25 | University of Iowa | 7,203 |
26 | University of Notre Dame | 7,122 |
27 | University of Tulsa | 7,098 |
28 | University of Southern California | 7,094 |
29 | University of Oklahoma | 7,049 |
30 | University of Alabama | 7,001 |
31 | George Washington University | 6,973 |
32 | University of Portland | 6,882 |
33 | University of California – Los Angeles | 6,718 |
34 | University of Wisconsin | 6,681 |
35 | Georgetown University | 6,656 |
36 | California State University – Sacramento | 6,629 |
37 | Saint Joseph's University | 6,594 |
38 | University of Louisville | 6,546 |
39 | University of Rhode Island | 6,540 |
40 | United States Naval Academy | 6,526 |
41 | University of Delaware | 6,419 |
42 | Loyola Marymount University | 6,393 |
43 | Boston College | 6,263 |
44 | University of San Diego | 6,209 |
45 | Stetson University | 6,192 |
46 | Seattle University | 6,155 |
47 | Jacksonville University | 6,150 |
48 | University of Central Florida | 6,074 |
49 | Drexel University | 6,074 |
50 | Dartmouth College | 6,037 |
51 | Temple University | 6,035 |
52 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 5,998 |
53 | Kansas State University | 5,967 |
54 | Michigan State University | 5,965 |
55 | Marist College | 5,948 |
56 | Boston University | 5,935 |
57 | University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | 5,893 |
58 | Bucknell University | 5,812 |
59 | University of Kansas | 5,767 |
60 | Saint Mary’s College of California | 5,679 |
61 | Canisius College | 5,615 |
62 | Creighton University | 5,588 |
63 | Southern Methodist University | 5,566 |
64 | University of Connecticut | 5,362 |
65 | College of the Holy Cross | 5,180 |
66 | Lehigh University | 4,998 |
67 | University of Dayton | 4,932 |
68 | University of Massachusetts – Amherst | 4,812 |
69 | Old Dominion University | 4,808 |
70 | Villanova University | 4,803 |
71 | Fairfield University | 4,739 |
72 | Merrimack College | 4,594 |
73 | West Virginia University | 4,586 |
74 | Cornell University | 4,469 |
75 | Drake University | 4,415 |
76 | Santa Clara University | 3,752 |
77 | Loyola University Maryland | 3,644 |
78 | Iona College | 3,326 |
79 | George Mason University | 2,527 |
Rank | School Name | Points |
1 | Duke University | 9,905 |
2 | University of Michigan | 9,532 |
3 | University of Virginia | 9,259 |
4 | Yale University | 9,240 |
5 | University of Texas – Austin | 9,013 |
6 | Ohio State University | 8,960 |
7 | Syracuse University | 8,913 |
8 | University of Pennsylvania | 8,592 |
9 | Rutgers University | 8,317 |
10 | Harvard-Radcliffe | 8,180 |
11 | University of Washington | 8,163 |
12 | University of Tennessee | 8,112 |
13 | University of California – Berkley | 7,983 |
14 | Indiana University | 7,905 |
15 | Boston University | 7,776 |
16 | Columbia University | 7,582 |
17 | Stanford University | 7,568 |
18 | Oregon State University | 7,446 |
19 | Northeastern University | 7,330 |
20 | University of Alabama | 7,230 |
21 | University of Minnesota | 7,192 |
22 | Washington State University | 7,084 |
23 | University of Central Florida | 7,025 |
24 | Dartmouth College | 7,017 |
25 | University of Miami | 6,971 |
26 | University of Iowa | 6,868 |
27 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 6,800 |
28 | University of California – Los Angeles | 6,758 |
29 | University of Southern California | 6,669 |
30 | Gonzaga University | 6,603 |
31 | University of Notre Dame | 6,562 |
32 | Michigan State University | 6,502 |
33 | Clemson University | 6,470 |
34 | University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | 6,455 |
35 | Southern Methodist University | 6,418 |
36 | University of Tulsa | 6,303 |
37 | University of California – San Diego | 6,278 |
38 | University of Oklahoma | 6,255 |
39 | Boston College | 6,189 |
40 | University of Dayton | 6,185 |
41 | University of Kansas | 6,185 |
42 | University of Wisconsin | 6,183 |
43 | Jacksonville University | 6,116 |
44 | United States Naval Academy | 6,069 |
45 | University of Rhode Island | 6,041 |
46 | Drexel University | 6,037 |
47 | Cornell University | 6,029 |
48 | Georgetown University | 6,018 |
49 | University of San Diego | 5,978 |
50 | University of Massachusetts – Amherst | 5,973 |
51 | University of Louisville | 5,924 |
52 | West Virginia University | 5,856 |
53 | George Washington University | 5,693 |
54 | Bucknell University | 5,502 |
55 | Kansas State University | 5,434 |
56 | University of Delaware | 5,390 |
57 | Marist College | 5,370 |
58 | Temple University | 5,147 |
59 | University of Connecticut | 5,023 |
60 | Stetson University | 4,928 |
61 | California State University – Sacramento | 4,888 |
62 | George Mason University | 4,805 |
63 | Saint Mary’s College of California | 4,803 |
64 | University of Portland | 4,748 |
65 | Canisius College | 4,738 |
66 | Loyola Marymount University | 4,674 |
67 | Saint Joseph's University | 4,594 |
68 | Creighton University | 4,485 |
69 | Villanova University | 4,362 |
70 | Old Dominion University | 4,349 |
71 | Lehigh University | 4,144 |
72 | Drake University | 4,055 |
73 | Fairfield University | 3,948 |
74 | College of the Holy Cross | 3,940 |
75 | Seattle University | 3,695 |
76 | Loyola University Maryland | 2,799 |
Rank | School Name | Points |
1 | University of Texas – Austin | 9,489 |
2 | University of California – Berkley | 8,624 |
3 | Syracuse University | 8,577 |
4 | Yale University | 8,576 |
5 | Ohio State University | 8,537 |
6 | Indiana University | 8,291 |
7 | University of Washington | 8,273 |
8 | University of Pennsylvania | 8,253 |
9 | Harvard-Radcliffe | 8,199 |
10 | Duke University | 8,162 |
11 | University of Michigan | 7,916 |
12 | Rutgers University | 7,835 |
13 | University of Tennessee | 7,551 |
14 | Stanford University | 7,439 |
15 | University of Virginia | 7,389 |
16 | Northeastern University | 7,310 |
17 | Dartmouth College | 7,203 |
18 | University of Notre Dame | 7,163 |
19 | University of Central Florida | 7,149 |
20 | University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | 7,064 |
21 | University of Miami | 7,024 |
22 | Kansas State University | 6,999 |
23 | Columbia University | 6,985 |
24 | University of California – Los Angeles | 6,965 |
25 | University of Alabama | 6,922 |
26 | University of Southern California | 6,875 |
27 | Gonzaga University | 6,864 |
28 | Boston University | 6,839 |
29 | Michigan State University | 6,829 |
30 | University of Iowa | 6,792 |
31 | Oregon State University | 6,687 |
32 | University of Minnesota | 6,593 |
33 | University of Kansas | 6,478 |
34 | Georgetown University | 6,461 |
35 | Washington State University | 6,405 |
36 | University of Rhode Island | 6,371 |
37 | Drexel University | 6,345 |
38 | Clemson University | 6,336 |
39 | Southern Methodist University | 6,331 |
40 | United States Naval Academy | 6,231 |
41 | Boston College | 6,177 |
42 | University of Dayton | 6,144 |
43 | University of Delaware | 6,115 |
44 | University of Tulsa | 6,105 |
45 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 6,085 |
46 | West Virginia University | 6,026 |
47 | University of Massachusetts – Amherst | 5,966 |
48 | George Washington University | 5,898 |
49 | Temple University | 5,822 |
50 | Jacksonville University | 5,801 |
51 | University of Louisville | 5,782 |
52 | Cornell University | 5,782 |
53 | Marist College | 5,671 |
54 | Old Dominion University | 5,659 |
55 | University of Connecticut | 5,290 |
56 | Stetson University | 5,243 |
57 | University of Wisconsin | 5,008 |
58 | Creighton University | 4,978 |
59 | University of California – San Diego | 4,886 |
60 | Saint Joseph's University | 4,755 |
61 | University of San Diego | 4,669 |
62 | Villanova University | 4,562 |
63 | College of the Holy Cross | 4,419 |
64 | California State University – Sacramento | 4,418 |
65 | Canisius College | 4,348 |
66 | Drake University | 4,184 |
67 | Saint Mary’s College of California | 4,148 |
68 | University of Portland | 4,134 |
69 | Loyola Marymount University | 3,950 |
70 | Fairfield University | 3,899 |
71 | University of Oklahoma | 3,893 |
72 | Lehigh University | 3,075 |
73 | Seattle University | 2,874 |
74 | Loyola University Maryland | 2,162 |
75 | Iona College | 1,967 |
76 | George Mason University | 970 |
Rank | School Name | Points |
1 | Yale University | 8,968 |
2 | University of Iowa | 8,175 |
3 | University of Michigan | 8,151 |
4 | University of Tennessee | 8,044 |
5 | Harvard-Radcliffe | 8,033 |
6 | Oregon State University | 7,710 |
7 | University of Virginia | 7,706 |
8 | Syracuse University | 7,555 |
9 | Duke University | 7,536 |
10 | University of California – Los Angeles | 7,532 |
11 | Ohio State University | 7,118 |
12 | University of Alabama | 7,106 |
13 | Gonzaga University | 7,047 |
14 | University of Central Florida | 6,900 |
15 | Rutgers University | 6,823 |
16 | University of Miami | 6,800 |
17 | Stanford University | 6,749 |
18 | Michigan State University | 6,662 |
19 | University of Minnesota | 6,591 |
20 | Saint Joseph's University | 6,545 |
21 | University of Pennsylvania | 6,532 |
22 | University of Kansas | 6,479 |
23 | University of Dayton | 6,448 |
24 | University of California – San Diego | 6,416 |
25 | Lehigh University | 6,335 |
26 | Columbia University | 6,230 |
27 | George Mason University | 6,140 |
28 | Old Dominion University | 6,118 |
29 | Indiana University | 6,060 |
30 | Washington State University | 6,018 |
31 | Dartmouth College | 5,851 |
32 | University of Wisconsin | 5,811 |
33 | United States Naval Academy | 5,660 |
34 | West Virginia University | 5,659 |
35 | University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | 5,658 |
36 | Cornell University | 5,616 |
37 | Northeastern University | 5,615 |
38 | Clemson University | 5,500 |
39 | University of Southern California | 5,116 |
40 | Georgetown University | 5,094 |
41 | Jacksonville University | 5,032 |
42 | California State University – Sacramento | 4,955 |
43 | University of Oklahoma | 4,750 |
44 | University of Tulsa | 4,530 |
45 | University of Notre Dame | 4,513 |
46 | University of San Diego | 4,469 |
47 | Loyola University Maryland | 4,284 |
48 | University of Rhode Island | 4,135 |
49 | Stetson University | 3,756 |
50 | George Washington University | 3,755 |
51 | Boston University | 3,723 |
52 | University of Louisville | 3,106 |
53 | Kansas State University | 2,720 |
54 | University of Massachusetts – Amherst | 2,660 |
55 | Temple University | 2,143 |
56 | University of Delaware | 2,088 |
57 | University of Connecticut | 1,016 |
Rank | School Name | Points |
1 | Yale University | 9,654 |
2 | Duke University | 9,593 |
3 | University of Virginia | 9,462 |
4 | University of Michigan | 9,092 |
5 | University of California – Berkley | 8,829 |
6 | University of Texas – Austin | 8,457 |
7 | Ohio State University | 8,375 |
8 | University of Pennsylvania | 8,139 |
9 | Syracuse University | 8,042 |
10 | University of Washington | 7,805 |
11 | Harvard-Radcliffe | 7,623 |
12 | Stanford University | 7,444 |
13 | University of Iowa | 7,410 |
14 | University of Central Florida | 7,404 |
15 | Northeastern University | 7,117 |
16 | Kansas State University | 6,989 |
17 | Cornell University | 6,959 |
18 | University of Oklahoma | 6,772 |
19 | Columbia University | 6,623 |
20 | Michigan State University | 6,589 |
21 | Dartmouth College | 6,582 |
22 | University of Miami | 6,560 |
23 | University of Tulsa | 6,496 |
24 | University of Kansas | 6,423 |
25 | Washington State University | 6,311 |
26 | Georgetown University | 6,297 |
27 | California State University – Sacramento | 6,284 |
28 | College of the Holy Cross | 6,284 |
29 | University of Alabama | 6,247 |
30 | Indiana University | 6,231 |
31 | University of Southern California | 6,225 |
32 | University of Notre Dame | 6,223 |
33 | Rutgers University | 6,091 |
34 | Jacksonville University | 5,935 |
35 | Boston College | 5,842 |
36 | Clemson University | 5,684 |
37 | Boston University | 5,636 |
38 | University of California – Los Angeles | 5,493 |
39 | Bucknell University | 5,454 |
40 | University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | 5,343 |
41 | University of Wisconsin | 5,301 |
42 | United States Naval Academy | 5,298 |
43 | University of Portland | 5,236 |
44 | Creighton University | 4,956 |
45 | Saint Joseph's University | 4,945 |
46 | University of San Diego | 4,928 |
47 | George Washington University | 4,905 |
48 | University of Delaware | 4,700 |
49 | Oregon State University | 4,694 |
50 | Temple University | 4,693 |
51 | University of Connecticut | 4,600 |
52 | University of Massachusetts – Amherst | 4,598 |
53 | University of Rhode Island | 4,529 |
54 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 3,710 |
55 | George Mason University | 3,705 |
56 | Marist College | 3,553 |
57 | University of California – San Diego | 3,526 |
Rank | School Name | Points |
1 | Mercyhurst University | 59 |
2 | Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University | 55 |
3 | Western Washington University | 52 |
3 | University of Central Oklahoma | 52 |
5 | Cal Poly Humboldt State University | 51 |
6 | Seattle Pacific University | 50 |
7 | Barry University | 45 |
8 | Rollins College | 44 |
9 | Nova Southeastern University | 33 |
10 | Assumption University | 20 |
11 | Thomas Jefferson University | 18 |
12 | D'Youville College | 16 |
Rank | School Name | Points |
1 | University of Central Oklahoma | 7,651 |
2 | Cal Poly Humboldt State University | 6,896 |
3 | Seattle Pacific University | 6,405 |
4 | Mercyhurst University | 6,369 |
5 | Western Washington University | 6,128 |
6 | Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University | 6,063 |
7 | Rollins College | 6,038 |
8 | Barry University | 5,332 |
9 | Thomas Jefferson University | 5,060 |
10 | Nova Southeastern University | 4,533 |
11 | Assumption University | 4,453 |
Rank | School Name | Points | |
1 | Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University | 5,893 | |
2 | Mercyhurst University | 5,675 | |
3 | Barry University | 5,562 | |
4 | Western Washington University | 5,430 | |
5 | Rollins College | 5,359 | |
6 | Nova Southeastern University | 5,355 | |
7 | D'Youville College | 5,046 | |
8 | Seattle Pacific University | 4,953 | |
9 | Cal Poly Humboldt State University | 4,276 | |
10 | University of Central Oklahoma | 3,958 | |
11 | Assumption University | 3,900 | |
Rank | School Name | Points |
1 | Ithaca College | 184 |
2 | Williams College | 176 |
3 | Wellesley College | 166 |
4 | Wesleyan University | 165 |
5 | Hobart & William Smith Colleges | 161 |
6 | Vassar College | 140 |
6 | Skidmore College | 140 |
8 | Hamilton College | 139 |
9 | Smith College | 135 |
10 | University of Puget Sound | 131 |
11 | Worcester Polytechnic Institute | 125 |
12 | Bates College | 124 |
13 | University of Rochester | 123 |
14 | Bryn Mawr College | 120 |
15 | Stockton University | 116 |
16 | Washington College | 112 |
16 | Tufts University | 112 |
18 | Rochester Institute of Technology | 111 |
19 | Trinity College – Connecticut | 102 |
20 | Catholic University of America | 97 |
21 | Clark University | 87 |
22 | Lewis & Clark College | 81 |
23 | Union College – New York | 77 |
24 | Saint Mary's College of Maryland | 61 |
25 | Connecticut College | 59 |
26 | United States Coast Guard Academy | 54 |
26 | Marietta College | 54 |
28 | Colby College | 48 |
29 | Pacific Lutheran University | 46 |
30 | Pacific University | 45 |
31 | Simmons University | 42 |
32 | Adrian College | 33 |
Rank | School Name | Points | |
1 | Ithaca College | 7,166 | |
2 | University of Puget Sound | 6,319 | |
3 | Williams College | 6,227 | |
4 | Wesleyan University | 6,107 | |
5 | Wellesley College | 6,041 | |
6 | Hobart & William Smith Colleges | 5,835 | |
7 | Vassar College | 5,592 | |
8 | Hamilton College | 5,548 | |
9 | Bryn Mawr College | 5,433 | |
10 | Worcester Polytechnic Institute | 5,231 | |
11 | Skidmore College | 5,200 | |
12 | Smith College | 5,002 | |
13 | Washington College | 4,787 | |
14 | Lewis & Clark College | 4,764 | |
15 | Bates College | 4,740 | |
16 | Catholic University of America | 4,729 | |
17 | Stockton University | 4,600 | |
18 | Rochester Institute of Technology | 4,525 | |
19 | Trinity College – Connecticut | 4,495 | |
20 | University of Rochester | 4,212 | |
21 | Tufts University | 4,096 | |
22 | Clark University | 3,888 | |
23 | Marietta College | 3,733 | |
24 | Union College – New York | 3,658 | |
25 | Colby College | 3,607 | |
26 | Pacific University | 3,339 | |
27 | Simmons University | 3,131 | |
28 | Connecticut College | 2,670 | |
29 | United States Coast Guard Academy | 2,556 | |
30 | Adrian College | 2,527 | |
31 | Pacific Lutheran University | 1,766 | |
32 | Saint Mary's College of Maryland | 1,099 | |
Rank | School Name | Points | |
1 | Ithaca College | 7,453 | |
2 | Williams College | 7,115 | |
3 | University of Rochester | 6,333 | |
4 | Wellesley College | 6,091 | |
5 | Hobart & William Smith Colleges | 6,075 | |
6 | Wesleyan University | 5,607 | |
7 | Tufts University | 5,538 | |
8 | Skidmore College | 5,323 | |
9 | Smith College | 5,101 | |
10 | Bates College | 5,031 | |
11 | Stockton University | 5,014 | |
12 | Rochester Institute of Technology | 4,977 | |
13 | Hamilton College | 4,838 | |
14 | Vassar College | 4,700 | |
15 | Trinity College – Connecticut | 4,419 | |
16 | Saint Mary's College of Maryland | 4,316 | |
17 | Worcester Polytechnic Institute | 4,297 | |
18 | Clark University | 3,884 | |
19 | Washington College | 3,834 | |
20 | Union College – New York | 3,833 | |
21 | Bryn Mawr College | 3,815 | |
22 | Catholic University of America | 3,672 | |
23 | Connecticut College | 3,112 | |
24 | United States Coast Guard Academy | 2,931 | |
25 | Pacific Lutheran University | 2,923 | |
26 | University of Puget Sound | 2,756 |
What is the RankOAR?
The RankOAR is an approach to computer rankings that simulates each actual rowing race thousands of times. Each simulation is based on what are the likely outcomes if this race happened over and over, with the normal variations that happen in a race, guided by the outcome of the actual races. The mathematical basis is Luce's Choice Axiom, which is an elegant way to deal with uncertainty in comparisons between items. It is the same algorithm that makes your "what else to watch" suggestions on Netflix and that powers the Elo rankings for Chess. Like other ranking systems, these rankings are not intended to replace polls by knowledgeable experts.
Rowing, like all athletic competitions, involves a degree of uncertainty. Athletic performance in elite-level athletes generally varies as much as 1% from day to day. The problem this ranking system solves is how to properly rank broad comparisons with uncertainty about the uncertainty. This problem is simplistically described by the following results:
From a small number of races, it is hard to determine if a single event is the result of a good or a bad day by each crew. In the above example, it is not intuitive which team would likely be faster at week 4. When this problem is scaled to over a hundred teams and three months of races, it should be obvious that any rankings are not an absolute comparison.
The RankOAR makes no attempt to predict time differences in future races, but instead grades the teams with a relative number that generally falls between 0 and 10,000. Teams that are exceptionally fast will be near, or even above, 10,000. While the bottom teams will be near, or even below, 0. The numerical distance between teams signifies how close the teams are predicted to be in next week's events. Small differences generally predict more competitive races.
Methodology:
Luce's Choice Axiom is a well understood method to deal with uncertainty in comparisons. The best current generalized iteration is the Plackett-Luce Choice Axiom, which is accessible through the Choix package in Python. To better match college rowing performance, we add an age element, where older races count for less value than more recent races.
RankOAR does consider margin of victory, but only as far as it goes to determine how likely Team A is to beat Team B if that same race was repeated thousands of times. As a general guide, the simulations expect that in a given race, if Team A beats Team B by a boat length, Team A will win ~70% of the simulated races of that particular race. If the margin is three boat lengths, Team A will be expected to win >98% of the simulated races. While heats are less important than finals, the nature of the simulation generally accounts for teams 'saving themselves' for the finals if their place is secure.
Ranking results get published as soon as there is sufficient data for the model to converge on a solution. Generally, the First Varsity Eight (1V8) in Division 1 has the most early-season data and can produce a ranking before other events or divisions. All rankings points are probabilistic, meaning that there will be small variations each time the model is run, but the scale of the variations is such that only teams which are functionally tied in the rankings might be affected. NCAA Projected Finish uses the same points system that the NCAA championships use, modified for a larger pool of teams.
This is a naive model, as it does not consider underlying aspects that can affect performance, such as how far the teams must travel to the race, how long since their last race, their lane, if things went wrong on race day, what race conditions are, and who is missing from the lineup on race day.
Data:
To produce the best possible results, the model includes all available college results. The vast majority of this data is from Row2K. Standard ranked events include the 1V8, 2V8, 1V4, 2V4, and 3V8/1N8. If there is sufficient data, 3V4 and 4V8/2N8 events are also included. Boats that row in an event different from their normal event are not included, except when they faced a similar boat in that race. While lightweights are included, they are difficult to rank since they are not always entered in the same events. For example, is the lightweight boat entered in the 2V8 event a true 2V8 lightweight boat, or is it the 1V8 lightweight boat entered in the race below that school's 1V8 heavyweight boat? All divisions, including club races, are included. Due to the difficulty in cleaning the data, it is currently limited to only the women's rankings.
RankOAR history:
The rankings were developed by Nate Carmody with support from Curt Hastings. While Nate has a 20-year history in rowing, Curt has a 20-year history in Big Data and Machine Learning and once rowed 500m in 1:50 on a C2 erg. Nate coaches high school rowing out of Sandy Run Boathouse on the Occoquan and is most recognizable by his constant canine companion Teddy.