Almost as soon as the six US crews facing Final Qualification crossed the line in Bled a spot or two behind where they'd hoped to be, a massive question has been not how to qualify the boats, but who they would have to face, and beat, in the what the New Zealand press has been calling the "Regatta of Death."
A one-off race just months before the Games was always a fate to be avoided, if at all possible, and with the final entries now posted, a fuller picture of just how difficult the Lucerne Final Qualifier might be is coming into focus.
All is not dire and grim though: crews selected early and in the prime of their speed have taken the Qualifier by storm before and gone on to have very good Olympic performances. The Dutch, in particular, have just about mastered the FQ; check out how these non-qualified crews fared after snapping up one of the final spots: 2004 NED W8, bronze; 2004 NED M8, silver; 2008 NED W8, silver. The silvers in both the Men's Pair (CAN) and Four (AUS) went to crews that had to qualify--and given the hot racing in those finals, it seems a bit incredible that the Canadians and Australians were final qualifiers.
US boats have come through the Final Qualifiers, too: 2008 saw Ken Jurkowski in the M1x and the LW2x earn Beijing bids, and both crews made the B Final in China. In 2004, three USA crews made it to the Games via the Qualifier: the Men's Quad, the LM2x, and Jen Devine in the W1x--with the best finish that year being Steve Tucker and Greg Ruckman's run to win the B Final.
Maybe the best FQ "go" by the USA was in 2000: ahead of Sydney, the Men's Four, Women's Double, and Men's Pair all faced the Final Qualifiers, and all made the Olympic final later that summer--with the double just missing the podium in fourth and the pair of Sebastian Bea and Ted Murphy sneaking in for silver to win the USA a rare small boat medal. (The Sydney Olympiad also brought us possibly the best FQ story ever, when the Polish LM2x went from out altogether in 1999 to Olympic Champions, all via a year spent training for, and beyond, the Final Qualifier)
Of course, the folks in the US crews headed to Lucerne are different than the boats that missed qualifying in Bled--and, truth be told, a lot of that Hollandachter success is down to the Dutch abandoning small boats that did not qualify to go after one final spot. For the US crews, the men's doubles, heavy and light, are completely new, and even the light four and women's double are 50% changed from the Bled crews, and the hope--obviously--is that of lots of speed has been found in these new combinations. No where is this more true than the Men's eight: Coach Mike Teti will be calling on just two guys who raced the eight at Worlds last year, Grant and Ross James.
Only the racing will determine if the FQ is the final chapter or the next step for these crews, so here is a look at each crew, where they must finish, and who they will be racing it out against:
Men's Eight - 1st place, 3 entries
Notable competition: FRA NZL
In Belgrade, the French eight made the A final, but trailed in sixth, while the young New Zealand eight charged pretty well against the (qualified) Dutch eight in the heat, but was off the pace in the rep and missed the final. A year ago, that NZL eight was just .96 seconds of the 2011 USA lineup, and spent much of the past year planning for a second chance in Lucerne--in fact, the Kiwi press was talking about this eight's trip to the "Regatta of Death" before the Bled regatta had even ended.
Light Men's Four - 1st or 2nd place, 11 entries
Notable competition: NED NZL ARG CHI
The Dutch stormed into the final in Belgrade, eliminating the Italians in the rep (after also beating ITA in the heat). The Dutch took fourth in a final otherwise filled with qualified crews--and perhaps most worrying was just how close they came to winning their heat on Friday, against the indomitable Danes. New Zealand is another crew primed to contend at the Final Qualifier: they only missed the A Final in Belgrade by 0.1, and won the B Final by five seconds--something of a crushing margin in this event at any level--and this after they led their rep for 1500 meters against France and China.
Also heading to Lucerne in force will be Latin America: the Light Four is not included in the Latin American Qualifier, so all the top LA countries must fight to qualify here. Chile edged Argentina for 9th in Belgrade; both trailed Russia by a bit, and New Zealand by a lot in that final. Brazil will also make the trip. The USA handled all four of those crews in Bled a year ago, beating Chile and Russia to win the C Final, and dispatching Argentina in their repechage before ARG went on to the D Final.
Men's Double - 1st or 2nd place, 14 entries
Notable competition: CHN CZE ITA RUS SRB UKR
Any race that lines up with China and Italy in the mix promises to be a heater, even minus the high stakes of the FQ. China did not race at Belgrade, but Olympic aspirations, and speed, are sure to be what brings them here, while Italy took sixth at the World Cup--paced by an ITA 2 double that took 9th. Serbia, who finished in the C Final a year ago at Worlds, made the B Final in Belgrade before withdrawing due to illness; if recovered, they could figure to contend as well. Ahead of the Serbs, Ukraine went on to take 10th in that B Final just edging the Czech double, while Russia--though close to advancing in their rep, won the C Final for 13th.
Women's Double - 1st or 2nd place, 11 entries
Notable competition: NED FIN HUN ROU
If you think China and Italy are tough draws on the men's side, then how about seeing Romania, the Dutch, and the USA lining up in the Women's double? These have been the dominant sweep countries on the Women's side for some time, and the depth of each nation's team is pushing their scullers ever faster. In Belgrade, it looked to be the Dutch on the every-four-years form that has colored a couple of Olympic medals orange in the eight: they made it to the A Final, and got within a length of China, before taking 6th overall. Romania skipped Belgrade, as did the USA, but these three crews should all figure in the FQ Final. Looking to edge their way in on the strength of their finishes in Belgrade will be Hungary (9th), Finland (10th), and Austria (11th).
Light Men's Double - 1st or 2nd place, 16 entries
Notable competition: AUT AUS CZE HUN POL SLO
In a small boat at this level, with lightweights, it is safest to say that anything could happen, particularly when two of the strongest competitors--Australia and the new look USA double--skipped Belgrade all together. That said, the World Cup showcased a lot of this events depth and plenty of speed, most notably by Hungary, who took 5th in the end, after winning their heat and besting both Greece and China in the semi. The Hungarians beat the 2011 USA lineup in this event to win the Bled C Final, so they figure to be at the head of this Final Qualification field.
Behind Hungary, the Czechs raced to 8th in Belgrade, Austria's top double (one of four, whew) took 10th, Ireland took 17th and Sweden came in 24th. One potential crew in the weeds here could be Slovenia; 15th overall in Belgrade, they just narrowly missed the A/B Semi and could have had a very different result had that made that cut.
Women's Single - 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th* place, 17 entries
Notable competition: EST FRA GBR IRL NOR SRB
This race, with 17 entries for just 3 spots, promises to be contested pretty hard in every round. The Irish sculler, Sanita Puspure, took fifth in the final, and avoided the reps altogether with a strong heat. Serbia's Iva Obradovic won her semi to book a place in that same A Final, but was forced to withdraw before the race. Both with be formidable in Lucerne, along with Norway's Tale Gjoertz, who just missed the A final and nearly bypassed the reps on day one, before taking 8th.
An interesting storyline in this event with Great Britain's Rachel Gamble-Flint, and her quest to nab the one Olympic bid that Team GB missed out on in Bled. She raced to 10th in Belgrade, and no doubt has high hopes to win a place outright at her home Olympics. French sculler Sophie Balmary will line up here at the FQ as well, racing for a spot at her fourth Olympic Games (her third in the 1x). Who else could make the A Final at the FQ? Estonia came 9th in Belgrade, there is both a Danish and an Italian sculler in the mix who passed on the World Cup--so lots of folks who could easily make racing through the heats, reps, and semis dicey.
* - as of May 18th, there are now 4 spots up for grabs in the W1x, with FISA allocating one additional bid in this event; details on this can be found here.
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