The one word that should be on everyone's mind heading into Sunday's Pac-10 Championships is "blistering." The forecast temperature for the finals on Sunday would set the record high for May 17 at 103° degrees and little to no wind. It's looking to be so hot, that there's even been talk on the men's side of moving the finals (men's racing is final only) to the morning.
Things are just as hot on the water. The men's varsity eight race features four crews ranked in the top 20 including #2 Washington, #3 California, and #6 Stanford. Meanwhile the women's varsity race showcases seven crews ranked in the top 20 including top ranked Stanford and #2 California.
The regatta is currently scheduled with the women racing heats on Sunday morning, then all finals being run that afternoon. Jamco will be providing live results, and the Pac-10 is also planning on providing live streaming video of the racing; row2k will provide more information here when available.
MEN'S VARSITY EIGHT
Good luck trying to handicap the race for the medals this year. The only result that has yet to occur so far between Washington, California, and Stanford is a Stanford win over Cal. First, the Bears knocked off both crews in San Diego with Washington taking silver, Stanford fourth. Then Stanford came back two weeks later to beat the Huskies by four seconds at Redwood Shores. Washington rebounded the following week to beat Cal by eight seats. Most recently, California took it to Stanford on May 2 for an open water win.
Based off of the most recent results, Washington could be considered a slight favorite to win. The polls and seeding also reflect this with Washington ranked #2 in the most recent USRowing poll and seeded first. Whichever crew executes their race plan the best on Sunday afternoon may well come out victorious.
WOMEN'S VARSITY EIGHT
On paper, the women's varsity eight event looks to be a two-boat race between #1 Stanford and #2 Cal. The crews have split their two head-to-head matchups so far this spring. The Bears dominated on April 19th, winning by almost nine seconds at the Lake Natoma Invite, while the Cardinal reversed the decision on May 2 in their dual to win by four seconds. Washington is the best candidate to hope to be a spoiler, but they should be closely challenged by USC and Oregon State, who were both within a length of the Huskies in San Diego.
Remember that it is not only medals on the line in the final; despite the medal race, NCAA selection may be the real story here. Crews will need not only to try to place as high as possible, but will want to be as close to the leaders as possible - and this will be true for the second varsity and varsity four events as well.
MEN'S SECOND VARSITY EIGHT
Cal and Washington have split their two meetings this year - the Bears won in San Diego while the Huskies won on the Cut on April 25- with both crews beating the other by around half of length of open water.. Both crews should be well clear of the fight for third between Stanford and Oregon State, with the Cardinal winning both match-ups between the two so far this year.
WOMEN'S SECOND VARSITY EIGHT
The women's second varsity race should be one of the most competitive races of the day, with four strong crews entered. Stanford holds the number one seed by virtue of two wins over Cal. Cal and Washington were close in their dual, with Cal winning by two seconds. The sleeper to medal may be Washington State. The Cougars got off to a slow start, missing the final in San Diego and losing to the Huskies on April 11. The crew has found its rhythm since then, reeling off dominating wins over Michigan State (Big Ten Champs), Michigan, Ohio State, and Oregon State.
MEN'S VARSITY FOUR
What is listed as a four boat race is now just a three boat race following a scratch by Oregon State. Washington is the top seed following their four second win over Cal three weeks ago. UCLA will have their hands full keeping pace with these crews.
WOMEN'S VARSITY FOUR
The fours race for the women could turn into a real battle, as a lot of crews have showed decent speed so far with Washington, Cal, and Stanford looking to be the medal favorites. Stanford is seeded fifth despite having defeated Cal two weeks ago, reversing a 19-second loss at the Lake Natoma Invite. USC could be fast, but the only Pac-10 crew they have raced this spring is UCLA. The Trojans fared well in Boston three weeks ago, defeating Virginia, Radcliffe, BU, and Tennessee.
MEN'S FRESHMEN EIGHT
Washington is the clear favorite in this event having decisively won all its races so far this spring. Cal has been the only crew to come within 15 seconds of the Huskies, losing by nine seconds in San Diego and eight seconds in their dual. The Huskies are led by 7-man Tom Lehmann, who spent last summer as the bowman of the German pair that finished 4th in Beijing. Stanford could challenge for silver if the Bears drop too far off of the pace, and the Beavers could contend for bronze.
WOMEN'S NOVICE EIGHT
Based off results so far this spring, the finish order would be expected to hit the results board as Washington gold, Oregon State silver, Washington State bronze. However, what actually plays out will largely be determined by how many athletes from those boats get pulled up in to Varsity boats for Pac-10's. Most recently, Washington's top four out their Freshmen 8 won the Varsity Four race at Opening Day, and Oregon State pulled its top five novices up to varsity boats for their dual with the Cougars. If those line-ups hold, it could be anyone's race, with Cal and Gonzaga in the medal mix as well.
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05/14/2009 12:20:00 PM