The London Olympics open in just under 150 days, but when--exactly--will we know which events the US will be racing and which 2012 hopefuls will make the team?
Turns out that is all a bit complicated.
The men's single could be settled, in part, as early as March 17th, while the Women's Eight, Quad, and Men's Four--all A Finalists and more in 2011--won't be named until June 22nd. In all, the process of selecting the team and filling the 14 event Olympic program is nearly as lengthy as the 15 pages and 7 appendices of the 2012 Olympic Selection Procedures themselves--and complicated both by the type of boat and whether the US earned a qualifying spot in a given event last year, or still has that hurdle to overcome in the coming months.
Depending on whether the boat is big or small, qualified or non-qualified, there are actually as many as five--if not six--ways to make the 2012 Olympic Team.
We get those five or six when we consider that there are two National Selection Regattas, separate Trials for Qualified and Non-Qualified small boats (singles, pairs, and doubles), an April naming date for the big boats which have yet to qualify (the men's eight and light men's four), the "Regatta of Death" in Lucerne for the final Olympic berths on offer, a June date for naming the qualified big boats, and the possibility of some qualified small boats skipping Trails altogether if they earn a spot via an NSR win and a top four finish at a World Cup.
So here is a row2k 'road map' for getting to the Games, detailing this handful-plus of ways that athletes could win a spot on the US Olympic rowing team for 2012 (all of which have the following prerequisites, of course: a massively fast erg score, a literally Olympian physiology, a run of intense 3-a-day training stretching back at least one year if not many more, and of course just being really, really good)
Getting to London: M1x, M2-, W2-, LW2x
These are the already Qualified small boats, so athletes in this event can lock up an Olympic spot in one of two ways: either by first winning outright at one of the National Selection Regattas and then finishing in the top 4 at either the Belgrade or Lucerne World Cup, or--failing that in one way or another--by winning at the Qualified Olympic Trials in June.
The two pairs will race at both NSRs, but with all the top sweep athletes racing, the winning pair at the first NSR will probably be a crew headed instead to big boat selection (the Men's Four and Women's Eight). Since only the NSR winners in the qualifed small boat events can sew things up via the World Cup, these two pairs remain the events most likely to come down to June's Qualified Trials.
The Men's Single (NSR 1) and Light Women's Double (NSR 2) will only be run at a single NSR, so those athletes could be well on their way after their respective Selection Regatta racing determines who is eligible to chase final selection at the World Cups.
Getting to London: W1x, M2x, W2x, LM2x
These are the four non-Qualified small boats and, with qualifying being job one, these crews will not get the chance to test themselves on the World Cup Circuit. Athletes in these events will race the Non-Qualified Olympic Trials in April, with the winners headed to the Final Qualification Regatta in Lucerne, May 20th to 23rd.
That Final Qualifier comes by its "Regatta of Death" moniker pretty justly, and it really is sudden death for these crews in Lucerne: the doubles will need to finish in the top 2 to secure a place at the Games, while the single needs to be in the top three.
Getting to London: LM4-, M8+
These are the two non-Qualified big boats and--as selection-camp based crews--there is no open trial for either boat. The crews will be named on April 30th, and then head to that Final Qualification race in Lucerne. The Light Four gets the same deal as the doubles: take one of the top two spots and then pack the bags for London. The eight has a slightly stiffer challenge: they must win outright, because the Lucerne Qualifier only has one Olympic berth on offer in the Men's Eight, which leaves really no margin for error on that final day.
[for all six of these non-qualified crews, the racing in Lucerne promises to be fierce, but the US does have a track record of prevailing in the Final Qualifier. As the May race draws closer, row2k will take a look at that history, and break down the competition the US is likely to face for those final spots this time around]
Getting to London: M4-, M4x, W4x, W8+
These, of course, are the big boats that the US did pre-qualify in Bled, and they will each be named by the coaching staff, by June 22nd. Compared to some of the other events, these athletes might have the straightest road to selection, but it is far from "simple" because these are the premier boats for the USA this Olympiad, so competition will be beyond stiff . . . and with these crews selected last, the final athletes cut from these boats will not get a chance to find another seat for this Olympics.
So, to review, to make it to the London Games, you just win an NSR and place at the World Cup, OR win a Non Qualified Trial and place at the Final Qualifier, OR make the Light Four or Men's Eight and place (or win!) at the Final Qualifier, OR win a Qualified Small Boat Trial, OR prevail in big boat selection to make one of the quads, the Men's Four, or the defending Olympic Champion Women's Eight . . . and this is why we recommend a road map and, the aforementioned being really, really good.
row2k Summary of When and Where and Who
--the final pre-Olympic stops for each event, by date--
5/6 World Cup 1, Belgrade
M1x, M2-, W2-, LW2x - the NSR winner can qualify with top 4 finish, or head to World Cup 2
5/23 Final Olympic Qualifier, Lucerne
W1x: can qualify with a top 3 finish
M2x, W2x, LM2x, LM4-: can qualify with a top 2 finish
M8+ can qualify with a win
5/27 World Cup 2, Lucerne
M1x, M2-, W2-, LW2x: the NSR winner can qualify with top 4 finish, or head to Trials
6/14 Qualified Small Boat Trials
M1x, M2-, W2-, LW2x: can qualify by winning this Trials event
6/22 Naming Date for Big Boats
M4-, M4x, W4x, W8+: lineups will be finalized & announced in these events
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