The 2012 Pac-12 Championships kick off this Sunday morning with many things to settle on the water. The racing on the women’s side promises to feature close racing and unpredictable results while the men’s side has been dominated by the top-ranked Washington Huskies, who have won all their races by open water so far this spring.
Heavy on the minds on the women’s side will be NCAA qualification and winning the conference title. Regular season results across Division I have done little to clarify which 16 teams will get bids to Mercer in two weeks, so everyone will need to perform at their best this weekend.
"The conference championship is huge for three reasons,” said Cal Head Coach Dave O’Neill. “First and foremost, we need to qualify for NCAA's. We never take that as a given, so we'll be racing hard to be sure we make it. Second, we've had some good success at this race, and it would be nice to keep that going. Finally, none of our crews have yet to put together a complete race, and that will be a focus this weekend. When we do that, the first two objectives will take care of themselves."
Men’s Varsity Eight
On the men's side, the only mystery that remains for this race is how much speed Cal has been able to find in the past three weeks and whether or not they can make up the 10 second margin by which they trailed Washington in their dual at Redwood Shores. Cal and Stanford have raced twice, with Cal winning by 5 seconds in San Diego and 4 seconds in the Big Row. There are implications beyond the conference title for the men, too: the top three crews in the V8 that race IRA eligible lineups (i.e. with no freshman rowers) automatically qualify for the IRA national championships. With that goal in mind, Oregon State will be looking to keep pace with Stanford and Cal, and hoping to nab one of the top three positions. The Beavers lost to Stanford by five seconds on April 7. Club programs UCLA, Washington State, and Colorado round out the field and a good result against any of the varsity programs will burnish their ACRA seedings.
Women’s Varsity Eight
Undefeated USC comes in as the favorites--and the top seed--over Cal's V8 by virtue of their win at the Crew Classic, but a lot can change in six weeks. USC has gone on to post some high quality victories on both coasts: out east against both Princeton and Yale (on each teams' home course no less) and back at home against well-regarded UCLA. Cal, on the other hand, has put their Crew Classic result well behind them, and comes in as the #1 team in the nation on the strength of their whole squad's speedy spring. Cal resume was polished by healthy margins over Washington and Washington State, plus three wins over Stanford, in conference.
Even with USC and Cal set for a good--if not great--rematch to settle things here on Sunday, it is fair to say that this field is fairly wide open all around them: Washington ran their ranking as high as #2 after a great showing in San Diego and has lost only to Cal since, while UCLA has shown tremendous form all season, just thee seconds off both Cal and then USC at their dual. Stanford, just a year off a 3rd place showing at NCAAs, this much younger Cardinal team has struggled against top 10 teams, but still has lots of talent left to work with--and narrow margins against Wisconsin and Michigan State suggest that Stanford is finding their speed. Washington State is the final ranked team in the mix, at #17, and the Cougars, along with Oregon State, will be looking to get far up into this pack of fast schools as the racing unfolds.
Men’s Second Varsity Eight
Based on the results from the regular season, this four-boat race looks to have the least amount of intrigue at the regatta. Washington defeated Cal by 10 seconds, Cal defeated Stanford by 12 seconds, and Stanford defeated Oregon State by 10 seconds. One potential snag is that the Cardinal will be doubling up rowers from this event into the four.
Women’s Second Varsity Eight
This is where things start getting a bit murky with the women’s races, and where NCAA bid may begin to hang in the balance. Top seed UCLA won the Crew Classic and have shown good speed all year--including a second win over USC just weeks ago--but they will be challenged by Cal and Washington for medals; with Stanford, USC, and WSU in the hunt as well. The finish order in this race could go a long way to determining which teams are on the NCAA selection bubble, so every place will count.
Men’s Varsity Four
There is little data for predicting this event, but Washington won its dual with Cal by 9 seconds so they are the likely favorites. The depth of the Husky program is clearly evident in this event as they have raced some highly decorated oarsman in this boat so far this year. Senior Tom Lehmann was the bow seat of the 2011 varsity eight and also finished fourth in the German M2- at the Beijing Olympics. behind the Huskies, though, lots could happen in this event, and Washington State and USC could play spoiler for a medal here.
Women’s Varsity Four
Cal and Washington have had the most success this spring with the Bears topping the Huskies in their dual. WSU is also strong, but that leaves the rest of the crews as somewhat of a wild card. Much in the race depends on the lineup shuffling that has gone on in the 1V’s and 2V’s, so this event is difficult to predict and could see a surprise or two--and it is not unusual to see an NCAA bid come down to the placing of a given team's four. Every spot counts at this time of year.
Men’s Freshmen Eight
Washington has been on form this year, but their closest race was with Cal, so these two crews should put themselves ahead of the pack quickly and decide the winner in the last 500. The Huskies claimed a 5 second win in their first meeting, but Cal will not go quietly here. The race for third will likely come down to OSU and Stanford. The Beavers prevailed in their first meeting, but these two crews are fairly evenly matched.
Women’s Novice Eight
Cal is the heavy favorite in this event: they won the Crew Classic by 8 seconds over UCLA and have not looked back since. The favorites for the silver are Washington and UCLA, with WSU and OSU having outside shots at a medal.
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